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We cannot continue the irresponsible habits we have now. Our house is on fire, and our leaders – the politicians – respond by squabbling about who shall pay for using the fire extinguisher .

The more we delay, the more we will pay. Climate change is accelerating and human activities are the principal cause, as documented in a series of authoritative scientific reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The effects are already widespread, costly and consequential — to agriculture, water resources, human health, and ecosystems on land and in the oceans. Climate change poses sweeping risks for economic stability and the security of nations. Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General, United Nations:   |   | |    |

Update of the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) global temperature analysis (GISTEMP) finds 2014 to be the warmest year in the instrumental record… The 15 warmest years all occurred since 1998   |   | |   |   |   (April 2015)  | | |

“With an apparent cruel twist of fate, my country is being tested by this hellstorm called Super Typhoon Haiyan, which has been described by experts as the strongest typhoon that has ever made landfall in the course of recorded human history”. , 2013

For the world to meet its climate goals, a third of the world’s oil, half its gas and 80% of its coal must stay underground”   (Ecologist, Jan 2015)

“Mitigation- taking strong action to reduce emissions – must be viewed as an investment, a cost incurred now and in the coming decades to avoid the risks of very severe consequences in the future. If these investments are made wisely, the costs will be manageable, and there will be a wide range of opportunities for growth and development along the way”. ,  (2006).  |  T  |   |  |   |  (Sept 2015)   |   |

“Development of (fossil fuel) resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2 °C” 

The task of promoting human development, ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world. The benefits of strong, early action on climate change — action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies — far outweigh the costs.    |  (World Bank 2015)  |   |    |    |

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Fossil energy a threat to our common future

Action Now!

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The fossil fuel era can be dismantled within less than two decades. Three measures:

  1. All subsidies and special tax deals for the fossil fuel industry are removed globally.  The   (IMF) should get full support on this point. The .  “With oil likely to remain cheap for some time, oil-importing countries should lower or even eliminate fuel subsidies and rebuild the fiscal space needed to carry out future stimulus efforts”   |  |   (March 2015)  |   |    | 
  2. Put a 10% carbon fee on fossil fuels. 100% revenue distribution of the money to the public in equal shares as direct payments. The fee would start at $10/ton of CO2 and increase $10/ton each year; 100% of the revenue is returned to households, equal amounts to all legal residents. This approach spurs the economy, increasing the number of jobs by 2.1 million in 10 years. Emissions decrease 33% in 10 years, 52% in 20 years.   | (Jan 2016)   |   | Hansen, J. (2015)
  3. Divest! Invest your savings in the sunrise industry of renewable energy. Remove your money from the sunset fossil fuels industry.  All responsible governments must ensure that the current fossil fuel industry subsidies are transferred to renewables to speed up the .  |  |   |   | |   (Jan 2015) |    |  |   | (Aug 2015)   |   | (Oct 2015)   |

Fossil fuel propaganda and deniers delay responsible action

Climate deniers have as mission to confuse and create uncertainty. The point is to create decision-makers’ paralysis in order for business to continue as usual: trillions in subsidies from the world’s taxpayers, socialization of losses, privatization of profits in the coal- and oil industry. Externalization of costs is set in system by the international fossil industry.

To draw attention away from the elephant in the room, the deniers keep creating quasi-scientific discussions about the Pope’s beard. They keep running around screaming and pointing to mouse droppings in the corner and flies in the window. But the elephant keeps standing there, and more and more see it. It is pitch black and very threatening. It consists of that we daily burn over 90 million barrels of oil and an equivalent amount of coal and gas. In addition we destroy rainforests at an amazing speed.

One barrel of oil equals 159 litres, roughly a full bathtub. This corresponds to 14 310 000 000 litres of oil every day. Every day we burn a corresponding additional amount of coal and gas. If we add the coal, oil and gas, it corresponds to burning over 300 000 litres of oil, or an olympic sized swimming pool filled with oil every second, 24/7 year round. One should be keen on illusions to believe that this has no negative effects.

An increasing number of people now prefer realities to illusions, and start taking action:

Engineers take the lead

“It has become more urgent than ever to face up to the threats of climate change”

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        Energy storage

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Economists take the lead

“The financial costs linked to climate change represent the biggest threat to the global economy, Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz”

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  • Money morning, Jan 2015
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The delayed implementation of the Short lived climate pollutants (SLCP) control measures presented in the could have negative consequences on temperature rise. Due to the relatively short lifetimes of SLCPs climate benefits could be achieved quickly after mitigation of emissions. ()

Religious leaders take the lead

“We can no longer tinker about the edges, We can no longer continuing treating our addiction to fossil fuels as if there were no tomorrow, or there will be no tomorrow.” (D.Tutu)

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Insurers take the lead

“…it is important to place a strong emphasis on managing climate change, rather than simply responding passively to it.” (Munich re)

Lawyers take the lead

“If this nation relies on a stable climate system, and the very habitability of this nation and all of the liberties of young people and their survival interests are at stake, the courts need to force the agencies and the legislatures to simply do their job.” (M. Wood)

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Architects take the lead

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Ordinary people and grandparents take the lead

Grandparents Climate Campaign  regards global warming as the greatest ethical challenge of our times and a matter of intergenerational justice. GCC’s aim is to contribute to securing a planet for coming generations in ecological harmony. This necessitates reduction of our dependency on fossil resources, and a speedier conversion to greener energy

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Cities taking the lead

Aspen, Colorado, hasn’t just pledged to go 100 percent renewable for its electricity supply, it has pledged to do so by 2015

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Businesses taking the lead

B Corps are better companies – better for workers, better for communities and better for the environment.

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Politicians taking the lead?

“Time is running out. The more we delay, the more we will pay. Climate change is accelerating and human activities are the principal cause” B.K.Moon

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Military taking the lead?

The U.S. military refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier” because it has the potential to exacerbate many of today’s challenges – from infectious disease to terrorism. (Defence secr. Hagel)

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Energy companies trying to change?

Some countries, municipalities and states take the lead

Lots of poorer countries may be gearing up to largely skip fossil fuel reliance in favor of renewables

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Agriculturalists taking the lead

Health workers raising concerns

 Scientists take the lead

Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems

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…and of course: the petro tyrants,carbon barons and extreme hegemonists fight back

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Why the haste? What’s urgent?

    1. Fossil fuels are far too costly when you include the real and hidden costs. According to the IMF, fossil fuels are subsidised by USD 2 trillion per year. We must end this global regime of perverse subsidies to the multibillionaires.  ||   ||  (February 2014)   ||      || . .
    2. Fossil fuels are far too polluting, and destroy the air for billions of people.

      Tall chimneys do not entail no air pollution. Photo: Å. Bjørke

      Millions die every year because of air pollution. In addition comes the enormous land areas polluted by oil spills as in Nigeria, Canada and Baku. In the USA fracking pollutes incredible amounts of freshwater.  || ||  ||   (March 2014)  || (March 2014)  || (April 2014) ||    ||   ||  ||   ||   ||    ||

      (Sept 2015)

    3. Profits from fossil fuels are controlled by a handful of multibillionaires: the biggest petro exporters are Russia’s president Putin and the extreme Islamist regimes in the Middle East, like the Saudi Arabia royal family (Aramco) and other wahabbists in Qatar, Kuwait, Emirates, Uzbekistan and ayatollah regimes in Iran, Iraq etc. Other profiteers of similar calibre are the princelings in the communist party of China, controlling the gargantuan Sinopec, CNOOC and Petrochina. In the USA you find the Koch brothers who make billions every year on fossil fuels, and who, in collaboration with media mogul Rupert Murdoch, Fox news and others, finance an enormous propaganda machinery to protect the interests of the carbon barons. In turn they have close relations with petro tyrants in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. In addition you have the OPEC family of oil exporters, most or all ruled by corrupt petro tyrants. All these are closely associated to carbon barons in western big oil companies like ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron and of course with oil and gas giant Gazprom, Rosneft etc. A continued coal-and oil age will transfer power from ordinary people to these regimes and big corporations, ensuring an increasing number of financial crises, wars, terrorists, corpocracy rather than democracy and prolong regimes of extreme corruption and tyrannies all over the world. Since most big newspaper editors are vulnerable to superfunded petro lobbyists, a continued fossil fuel age is the biggest threat to democracy ever.  ||    ||   ||  ||  ||   ||   ||   ||    ||  ||  || | ||    ||  || ..- ——— 
    4. Global warming and climate change due to extra fossil CO2 to the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion will within the next decades lead to tremendous loss of lives due to more extreme weather, prolonged droughts and floods, rising sea levels and tsunamis of refugees. It is the initial forcing due to fossil carbon that ensures change. The feedback loops, with more atmospheric water vapor, methane from clathrates, soot from more forest fires, less albedo from melting glaciers etc  decide the scope of change. The enhanced greenhouse effect the coming decades may jeopardise our economies and agricultural production in general.  Large parts of the world’s ecosystems will be depleted, and many species will become extinct. We are running a very real risk of approaching an extermination disaster comparable to the one that took place during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum ()  55 million years ago. |  | (NYT Nov 2014) |  | . ||  ||   ||  ||  (Jan 2014) ||   ||    (Feb 2014)  ||   National Academies:  ||   ||   ||    ||   ||  (April 2014) ||.AAAS (2014)   || NASA (2014)    ||   Climate Science Systems (2014)   ||  Jamall, D. (2014)  ||   ||  |||| Nature (2014)  ||    ||  ||  ||   NYT (May 2014) U.S. ||    (NYT, May 2014)  ||  |||   ||    (May 2014)  ||  ||    ||   ||  || (BBC Nov 2014)  || (WMO 2014) ||

Source: Annual temperature variations are variations in weather. Climate is average parameters over 30 years. Focusing on one year is unscientific cherry-picking. The last three decades have seen a clear warming trend, despite low solar activity.

  • The 35 billion tonnes of extra CO2 emitted annually to our common atmosphere, entails a very serious acidification of our oceans, jeopardising all future sea bio production. Warmer oceans also entails serious sea level rise, in turn threatening coastal areas world wide.    ||   ||    ||   ||  .  || (Oct 2014) ||    ||   (BBC Oct 2014) ||,- ————–…………………………………………..
  • Fossil fuels are far too dominating as energy sources in many countries, making entire populations vulnerable to armed conflicts, peak oil and political instability. Oil exporting countries relying more or less exclusively on oil as income source, risk huge price fluctuations and “Dutch disease”.   ||   ||   ||      || ||   ||   | .
  • The correlation between increases of atmospheric CO2 and global warming has long since been established The Mathematician argued already in 1827 that the atmosphere acted like a glass lid above the soil surface, allowing normal sunlight slip through, but delayed long wave infrared heat radiation from the Earth’s surface on its way out, thereby altering the energy balance of the planet.  gave evidence to the greenhouse effect by experiments in 1863, and discovered the realms of and the physical properties of air.  showed how CO2 in the atmosphere affected the temperature of the ground and introduced the concept of radiative forcing.In principle, large gas molecules, i.e. molecules with three or more atoms vibrate in step with the infrared radiation. Gases such as oxygen (O2) and nitrogen (N2) will not react particularly to such radiation, while water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3) and methane (CH 3) will vibrate. Many factors affect the climate. Changes in ocean currents may cause more energy being absorbed by oceans. Anthropogenic emissions of gases often come together with particles, or aerosols with a cooling effect. Air pollution over Asia, more large wildfires and dust storms in increasingly drier areas give more cooling aerosols. The scientific debate on  whether CO2 is a greenhouse was completed many years ago. The discourse now is about sensitivity.    |   |  |   |   |.. |  | .
  • Realities dictate that less than a quarter of the already established reserves can be used. When an increasing number of governments decarbonise their economies and cut emissions to limit global warming and other damages to our ecosystems, the fossil fuel industry’s coal, oil and gas reserves must remain unburned. Many of the sources will be “stranded assets”, creating a large financial risk for those with stakes in fossil fuels. As the big, old and cheap oil wells dry out the coming two decades, the oil industry will remain with marginal or unconventional sources. These sources are expensive to run, and the profit margins small and vulnerable.   ||  ||    ||   ||     ||

    When measuring the average temperature over decades, there is a clear and dramatic warming the last 30 years.Global warming the last three decades has been dramatic. Source:

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  • The Energy Returned On Energy Invested formula is tough. Hundred years ago you could get 100 barrels of oil for the investment of one barrel. In the marginal and unconventional oil fields you now might approach as little as 2 to one. The global fossil fuel industry depends on unconventional sources. Without these, demands cannot be met, and the system would unravel. The fossil fuel industry is therefore quickly becoming obsolete. The future car technology belongs to cars like Tesla. The future car will have the entire body as a battery and solar charger. The future homes will produce more energy than they use. Investing in oil is now becoming comparable to investing in desk telephones and landlines and in gas guzzlers in the 1980s. Ask people in Detroit what they now think about that kind of investments. Remove the subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, make them pay for the negative externalities, add a small carbon tax at the source, and very few fossil fuel sources, none of the unconventional ones,  would be profitable. The regions choosing to prolong the sunset fossil fuel society will gradually become stagnant, backwards, non-innovative societies, somewhat parallel to the Soviet union states twenty years ago, with their polluting technology, while the regions choosing sunrise technology will be the dynamic winners.  || C || . ………………………………………————————————————–.
  • The oil economy tends to favour the extremely rich to the economical detriment of the poor and middle-income classes. Oil economies inevitably lead to extremely unequal distribution of prosperity: more multibillionaires, less middle class, more poor and homeless people. With a few caveats, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman might have a point in his  “: In a petroleum-producing country with weak infrastructure, when oil prices rise, democratic forces will lose, freedom “will be curtailed, education underfunded, human development retarded’. “The second law of petropolitics” goes like this: “you cannot be an effective foreign policy realist or an effective democracy-promoting idealist without also being an effective energy-saving environmentalist.” The latest Oxfam report on inequalities describes increasing capital accumulation on very few hands:  ||  (NYT Jan 2014) || Danson, C. (2014)   ||  ||  ||   ||    ||  ||………………………………………………………………………………………….
  • Reckless and desperate attempts at halting the global warming through irresponsible forms of geo-engineering, may lead to even more freaky and extreme weather and harm our common ecosystems. |  ||  ||   ……………………. ………………….
  • Renewable technologies without the above mentioned problems are available. The sustainable society is more resilient, safer and socially cohesive than the fossil fuel society.

     (April 2014) ||   || ||   ||  (May 2014)  |||   ||   || ||   ||    (April 2014) ||   May 2014)  ||  ||    ||   (May 2014)  ||    ||    ||    ||  ||   ||   ||     ||   (June 2014)  ||    ||   (2013) ||

Oil driven technology – desalination in QatarPhoto: Å. Bjørke

Transfer the coal and oil subsidies to renewable energy, and within two to three decades, the present irresponsible and unethical paradigm of reckless greed will be gone, and a new and much better sustainable society will develop.

The risks of continuing our experiments with climate and fossil fuel dependency are enormous. The risks of transforming our societies to a responsible, low-polluting, sustainable and resilient society are negligible, while the gains are a much better and safer society for all.

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